False Consensus and Self-Serving Bias




How agreeable are your opinions? Do most people agree with your point of view?

We tend to overestimate the extent people agree with us and feel satisfied when there is a consensus with the point we are making. The bias is a manipulation of our perception. We perceive that those around us are in agreement with our views and wishes more often than is realistically justified.

If you are in a discussion with someone about a topic they feel strongly about they will be looking for confirmation that their point of view is correct. They will put their point across as clearly as they see it and if it appears that you are going to have an opposing viewpoint they will further put emphasis on the points which they feel are the most compelling.


What happens when that doesn’t work?

They will look for confirmation from others to ‘prove’ the righteousness of their point. They have the expectation that others will, of course, agree with them. They are falsely assuming a consensus before the evidence of it is apparent. 

A bias of this sort has the function of seeking out validation of ourselves. We have a view of ourselves and validation bolsters that view. It strengthens our self-esteem and gives rise to a more positive feeling.

We could argue that they wouldn’t feel the need to seek out confirmation or validation if there wasn't doubt on some level as to the strength of their point. A desire to conform to the group has the effect of establishing our ‘membership’ of the collective.

If I think the same as everyone else then I am part of the group, and this is important, after all, there is safety in numbers.

A similar bias occurs when we are assessing our own achievements. We have a tendency to attribute our successes to our own efforts and our failures to external factors; those elements that are out of our control.

When the salesperson has achieved their monthly targets it is because of their finely attuned sales skills, but when they have missed their targets for the second month running, they attribute it to a downward trend in the economy or less buoyant sales market.

This self-serving bias has the effect of attempting to bolster our self-esteem, and on the face of it, there is nothing wrong with that.


The key here is that it is a bias…

If someone really has been successful because of their talents and skills, then it is absolutely right that they should attribute it to themselves. If, however, they have low self-esteem and they are attempting to deny the fluctuating strength of their talents and skills alongside the external factors, then they are really missing the point that they are not a robot and cannot be expected to do everything absolutely correct every single time.

What I’m really saying is that a tendency to engage in self-serving bias may, in fact, indicate that there is work to be done on a person’s self-esteem. It is not a weakness, but rather a bias has got in the way of a person taking credit where it is due and using their skills and talents to make the best of circumstances.

It is appealing for us to self-serve bias in this way as it helps us to feel that we are explaining away our perceived failures.

No-one succeeded at everything all of the time. It is the application of talent, skills, experiencing and knowing when to seek out the help that leads to success.

The appeal is that by overestimating attribution of success to just ourselves, we are raising our status within the group, at least that how it seems to us. The focus on personalised success allows us to feel more in control. With higher self-esteem, we feel less need to ‘blow our own trumpet’ and instead quietly acknowledge our success and the failures to be worked on. It is this mindset called self-efficacy: a quiet, confidence in our own abilities.

When the outcomes of the situation match a person’s expectations, they attribute this to dispositional factors (personalise it), but when it is inconsistent with their expectations it is attributed to situational factors (out of their control).

As this is a biased viewpoint, the negative outcome, in the long run, is that it prevents a person from addressing the problems within a situation. If we attribute negative things as being only external in origin then we fall into the trap of playing ‘the blame game’.

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